The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Palestinian Patients Attending Selected Governmental Hospitals: An Analysis of Hospital Records.

INTRODUCTION: Confronting the COVID-19 epidemic forced the closure or relocation of the majority of health facilities. It is likely that non-COVID-19 patients suffered collateral effects. METHODS: The clinic and operating room records were analyzed at selected Palestinian government hospitals in the West Bank region. RESULTS: The reduction in patient clinic visits varied from 49% to 90%, with Ear-Nose-Throat (ENT), urology, and pediatric clinics being the most affected. The reduction in operation numbers in the center (which had independent decision-making) ranged from 7.1% to 23.4%, but in the north and south (which followed centralized choices), the reduction ranged from 19.6% to 91.8%. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 affected outpatient visits. The pandemic affected some services, but West Bank hospitals were able to provide normal obstetric and gynecological treatments and help patients who needed primary or intermediate surgery.

Deferral of elective surgeries during the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on Palestinian patients: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: During the Covid-19 epidemic, the increased number of people seeking medical attention worsened hospital shortages. This shortage required reallocating the workforce, personal protective equipment (PPE), medical equipment, medical disposables, and hospital wards. This reallocation delayed a number of elective surgeries. This study explored the financial, physical, and psychological implications of deferring elective surgeries on Palestinians in three West Bank hospitals during the pandemic. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included 398 patients from tertiary hospitals in Palestine whose elective surgical procedures were deferred due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Between 8/8/2021 and 6/9/2021, data were collected on patients who had elective surgery deferral at three government hospitals in the West Bank of the Palestinian territories. There were five parts to the study tool; personal information, access to the health system, physical affection, financial effect, and psychological effect. Statistical analysis included a univariate, bivariate and multivariate. RESULTS: The healthcare system's response to the COVID-19 epidemic directly affected patients whose surgeries were deferred. The healthcare system's response was the cause of the delay in 91.5% of the cases. Orthopedic and neurological surgeries account for 48.3% of deferred surgery. Other than delayed surgeries, 30.2% of patients were unable to get additional health care services. Physically, 55.5% of patients were impacted, 45% were anxious, and 29.6% were depressed. CONCLUSIONS: Patients who had procedures deferred as a result of the healthcare system's response to the COVID-19 epidemic were impacted physically, financially, and psychologically. There should bea better crisis management strategyto ensure that certain hospitals are able to operate regularly despite the situation.

Monitoring and Combating Waterpipe Tobacco Smoking Through Surveillance and Taxation.

Waterpipe tobacco smoking (WTS) is a traditional tobacco use method that originated in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) and has resurged in recent decades. WTS rates in the EMR are the highest worldwide, especially among youth, exceeding cigarette-smoking rates in select jurisdictions. Despite its documented harm, the growing prevalence of WTS has been met with a poor regulatory response globally. At the epicenter of the WTS epidemic, countries in the EMR are in urgent need of effective tobacco control strategies that consider the particularities of WTS. A roundtable session, titled "Monitoring and Combating WTS Through Taxation and the Global Tobacco Surveillance System (GTSS)," was held as part of the 7th Eastern Mediterranean Public Health Network's regional conference. The session provided an overview of evidence to date about WTS policy control, the taxation of WTS, volumetric choice experiments for tobacco control research, and monitoring WTS patterns and control policies among adults and youth through the GTSS. The session highlighted the need to update the regulation of WTS in the current global tobacco control policy frameworks and the need for developing tailored, evidence-based, and WTS-specific regulations to complement current tobacco control policy frameworks. Raising taxes to increase the price of tobacco products is the single most effective tobacco control measure, and these taxes can fund expanded government health programs. The effectiveness of taxation can be measured via volumetric choice experiments, which allow for the estimation of a complete set of own-price and cross-price elasticities that are instrumental for fiscal policy simulations. Finally, the surveillance of WTS (for example, through the GTSS) is critical to informing policy and decision makers. The Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) and Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) are 2 GTSS products that provide nationally representative data among students aged 13-15 years and persons ≥15 years, respectively.

Own-price and cross-price elasticities of demand for cigarettes and waterpipe tobacco in three Eastern Mediterranean countries: a volumetric choice experiment.

BACKGROUND: Waterpipe tobacco smoking rates in the Eastern Mediterranean region are among the highest worldwide, yet little evidence exists on its economics. Estimates of demand elasticities for tobacco products are largely limited to cigarettes. This study aimed to estimate own-price and cross-price elasticities of demand for cigarettes and waterpipe tobacco products in Lebanon, Jordan and Palestine. METHODS: A volumetric choice experiment was conducted using nationally representative household surveys. The choice experiment elicited respondents' stated purchases of eight cigarette and waterpipe tobacco product varieties by hypothetically varying prices. Data were analysed using zero-inflated Poisson models that yielded demand elasticity estimates of cigarette and waterpipe tobacco consumption. RESULTS: The study included 1680 participants in Lebanon (50% female), 1925 in Jordan (44.6% female) and 1679 in Palestine (50% female). We found the demand for premium cigarettes to be price elastic (range, -1.0 to -1.2) across all three countries, whereas the demand for discount cigarettes was less elastic than premium cigarettes in Lebanon (-0.6) and Jordan (-0.7) and more elastic in Palestine (-1.2). The demand for premium waterpipe tobacco was highly elastic in Lebanon (-1.9), moderately elastic in Jordan (-0.6) and inelastic in Palestine (0.2). The cross-price elasticity between cigarettes and waterpipe tobacco was near zero, suggesting that the two products are not considered to be close substitutes by consumers. CONCLUSIONS: These results serve as a strong evidence base for developing and implementing fiscal policies for tobacco control in the Eastern Mediterranean region that address cigarettes and waterpipe tobacco products.

Economic research in waterpipe tobacco smoking: reflections on data, demand, taxes, equity and health modelling.

Economic evaluation of tobacco control policies is common in high-income settings and mainly focuses on cigarette smoking. Evidence suggests that increasing the excise tax of tobacco products is a consistently effective tool for reducing tobacco use and is an efficient mechanism for increasing government revenues. However, less research has been conducted in low/middle-income countries where other tobacco forms are common. This paper presents insights from our work on the economics of waterpipe tobacco smoking conducted in the Eastern Mediterranean Region where waterpipe smoking originated and is highly prevalent. The specific areas related to economics of waterpipe smoking considered herein are: price elasticity, taxation, government revenue, expenditure and healthcare costs. This paper aims to provide practical guidance for researchers investigating the economics of waterpipe tobacco with potential implications for other novel tobacco products. We present lessons learnt across five thematic areas: data, demand, taxes, equity and health modelling. We also highlight knowledge gaps to be addressed in future research. Research implications include designing comprehensive assessment tools that investigate heterogeneity in waterpipe smoking patterns; accounting for cross-price elasticity of demand with other tobacco products; exploring the change in waterpipe tobacco smoking in response to a tax increase and analysing the equity impact of waterpipe tobacco control interventions.

Prevalence of cigarette and waterpipe tobacco smoking among adults in three Eastern Mediterranean countries: a cross-sectional household survey.

OBJECTIVES: Tobacco smoking is on the rise in the Eastern Mediterranean region. In light of limited surveillance of smoking in the region, this study sought to understand the prevalence of cigarette and waterpipe smoking among adults and the factors associated with smoking in Lebanon, Jordan and Palestine (West Bank only). DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Household surveys were conducted with participants over the age of 18 in Lebanon (n=1680), Jordan (n=1925) and Palestine (n=1679) between June and August 2019. A multistage cluster sampling approach with probability-proportional-to-size random selection method was followed in the three countries. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Gender-specific prevalence rates for cigarette and waterpipe smoking were estimated. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with current cigarette and waterpipe tobacco smoking. RESULTS: The prevalence of cigarette smoking among males and females respectively was 48.6% and 21.5% in Lebanon, 50.4% and 9.1% in Jordan, and 53.4% and 3.1% in Palestine. The prevalence of waterpipe smoking among males and females respectively was 32.7% and 46.2% in Lebanon, 13.4% and 7.8% in Jordan, and 18.0% and 7.9% in Palestine. Cigarette smokers were significantly (p<0.05) more likely to be male, younger and with lower educational attainment across the three countries. Waterpipe smokers were more likely to be young adults across the three countries (p<0.001). They were more likely to be male in Jordan and Palestine, and more likely to be female in Lebanon. CONCLUSIONS: The high prevalence rates of smoking in Lebanon, Jordan and Palestine are concerning. Continued surveillance is key to monitor smoking patterns and inform stronger tobacco control measures.

Impact of waterpipe tobacco taxation on consumption, government revenue and premature deaths averted in Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine: a simulation study.

INTRODUCTION: Despite the high prevalence of waterpipe tobacco smoking in the Eastern Mediterranean region, evidence supporting its fiscal measures is limited. We modelled the impact of waterpipe tobacco-specific excise taxes on consumption, government revenue and premature deaths averted in Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine. METHODS: We developed a simulation model using country-specific and market share-specific price, consumption and price elasticity data from WHO, UN Comtrade and nationally representative surveys. We modelled increases to specific excise taxes to meet a 35.9% tax burden on 20 g of waterpipe tobacco in Lebanon and Jordan, in line with the global average, and to double government revenues from excise duties in Palestine, which has surpassed this average. RESULTS: Specific excise tax was raised by $1.14 ($0.18-$1.32) in Jordan, $2.41 ($0.03-$2.44) in Lebanon (alongside removal of ad valorem taxes) and $2.39 ($1.72-$4.11) in Palestine per 20 g of waterpipe tobacco. Government revenue increased by $126.3 million in Jordan, $53.8 million in Lebanon and $162.4 million in Palestine while waterpipes smoked decreased by 32.4% in Jordan, 71.0% in Lebanon and 16.3% in Palestine. The corresponding numbers of premature deaths averted annually were approximately 162 000; 1 000 000; and 52 000. DISCUSSION: Increases in waterpipe tobacco-specific excise taxes substantially reduce smoking and increase government revenue and averted premature deaths in Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine. This has positive implications for both public health and financing and should be considered a policy priority.

Country and gender differences in the association between violence and cigarette smoking among youth.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to violence in youth may be associated with substance use and other adverse health effects. This study examined cigarette smoking in two middle-income areas with different levels and types of exposure to violence. METHODS: Association of exposure to verbal and physical violence with cigarette smoking in the West Bank oPt (2008) and in Jujuy Argentina (2006) was examined using cross-sectional surveys of 14 to 17-year old youth in 7th to 10th grade using probabilistic sampling. RESULTS: Violence exposure rates were more than double for Palestinian girls (99.6% vs. 41.2%) and boys (98.7% vs. 41.1%) compared with Argentinians. The rate of current cigarette smoking was significantly higher among Argentinian girls compared with Palestinian girls (33.1% vs. 7.1%, p < 0.001). Exposure to verbal violence from family and to physical violence increased the odds of current cigarette smoking, respectively, among Argentinian girls (aOR = 1.3, 95% CI = 1.0-1.7; aOR = 2.5, 95%CI = 1.7-3.8), Palestinian girls (aOR 2.2, 95%CI = 1.1-2.4; aOR = 2.0, 95%CI = 1.1-3.6) and Argentinian boys (aOR = 1.5, 95%CI = 1.1-2.0; aOR = 2.2, 95%CI = 1.6-3.0), but not among Palestinian boys. CONCLUSION: Findings highlight the importance of producing context and gender specific evidence from exposure to violence, to inform and increase the impact of targeted smoking prevention strategies.

Gender differences in waterpipe tobacco smoking among university students in four Eastern Mediterranean countries.

INTRODUCTION: Males have a higher prevalence of waterpipe tobacco smoking (WTS) than females in most Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) countries, with a smaller gender gap than that of cigarette smoking. The objective of this study was to determine gender differences among university students with respect to WTS initiation, smoking behavior, tobacco flavors, and expenditure on WTS, in four EMR countries. METHODS: A cross-sectional online survey was conducted based on convenient samples of ever waterpipe smokers among university students in four EMR countries (Egypt, Jordan, Occupied Palestinian Territories, and the United Arab Emirates) in 2016. The total samples included 2470 participants. Study participants were invited through flyers, university portals, emails and Facebook, followed by emails with links to the internet survey. RESULTS: Females (80.4%) were more likely than males (66.4%, p<0.001) to be in the younger age group (18-22 years) and they were less likely to be current waterpipe smokers (females, 60.0%; males 69.5%, p<0.001). Two-thirds of students across both genders smoked their first waterpipe at the age of 15-19 years, with more females starting with family members. Over one-third of males and 14.9% of the females usually smoked ≥10 heads (p<0.001). About half (46.6%) of females smoked for less than half an hour compared to 30.5% of males (p<0.001). Only 1% of females smoked non-flavored tobacco compared to 11% of males (p<0.001). There was a significant (p=0.05) positive correlation (r=0.808) with respect to tobacco flavor usually smoked between males and females with apple/double apple being the most popular. CONCLUSIONS: There were gender differences in WTS in several aspects. The study has implications for educational establishments, tobacco control and women civil society groups, as well as policymakers.

Waterpipe Tobacco Smoking among University Students in Three Eastern Mediterranean Countries: Patterns, Place, and Price.

Background: The objective of this study was to examine waterpipe tobacco smoking patterns, places of smoking, and prices paid among university students in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Methods: A cross-sectional online survey was administered to a convenience sample of university students in three countries. Participants were young adults (18-29 years) who were ever waterpipe smokers, from Egypt (n = 728), Jordan (n = 790), and Palestine (n = 722). Measures included past-30-day waterpipe smoking, frequency, intensity, place of smoking, and prices paid per waterpipe smoking session and for packaged waterpipe tobacco. Logistic regression models evaluated the factors associated with past-30-day waterpipe smoking. Results: Past-30-day waterpipe smoking (prevalence) was observed among 60.7%, 67.7% and 63.1% of students from Egypt, Jordan, and Palestine, respectively. Among past-30-day smokers, past-5-day waterpipe smoking (frequency) was observed among 28.9%, 51.5%, and 48.6% of participants, respectively. Smoking in a café was highest among participants from Egypt (74.0%), followed by those from Palestine (44.8%), and Jordan (43.0%). Mean price paid per session was USD 0.99 (Egypt), USD 8.07 (Jordan), USD 6.05 (Palestine). The corresponding mean prices per packet were USD 0.86, USD 4.96, and USD 5.55, respectively. Predictors of past-30-day waterpipe smoking included younger age of initiation, male gender, employment, and smoking waterpipe alone. Conclusions: This study contributes to our understanding of waterpipe smoking patterns, places of smoking, and prices paid among young adults in a region with alarmingly high smoking rates. Understanding waterpipe smoking behaviors can inform the design of policy and educational interventions to curb its rising threat.

Individual-level determinants of waterpipe smoking demand in four Eastern-Mediterranean countries.

The prevalence of waterpipe tobacco smoking in the Eastern Mediterranean Region is at alarmingly high levels, especially among young people. The objective of this research was to evaluate the preferences of young adult waterpipe smokers with respect to potential individual-level determinants of waterpipe smoking using discrete choice experiment methodology. Participants were young adult university students (18-29 years) who were ever waterpipe smokers, recruited from universities across four Eastern Mediterranean countries: Jordan, Oman, Palestine and the United Arab Emirates. The Internet-based discrete choice experiment, with 6 × 3 × 2 block design, evaluated preferences for choices of waterpipe smoking sessions, presented on hypothetical waterpipe café menus. Participants evaluated nine choice sets, each with five fruit-flavored options, a tobacco flavored option (non-flavored), and an opt-out option. Choices also varied based on nicotine content (0.0% vs. 0.05% vs. 0.5%) and price (low vs. high). Participants were randomized to receive menus with either a pictorial + text health-warning message or no message (between-subjects attribute). Multinomial logit regression models evaluated the influence of these attributes on waterpipe smoking choices. Across all four samples (n = 1859), participants preferred fruit-flavored varieties to tobacco flavor, lower nicotine content and lower prices. Exposure to the health warning did not significantly predict likelihood to opt-out. Flavor accounted for 81.4% of waterpipe smoking decisions. Limiting the use of fruit flavors in waterpipe tobacco, in addition to accurate nicotine content labeling and higher pricing may be effective at curbing the demand for waterpipe smoking among young adults.

A comparison between health research output and burden of disease in Arab countries: evidence from Palestine.

BACKGROUND: Research conducted on conditions responsible for the greatest disease burden should be given the highest priority, particularly in resource-limited settings. The present study aimed to assess the research output in relation to disease burden in Palestine and to identify the conditions which are under- or over-investigated, if any. METHODS: We searched PubMed and Scopus for reports of original research relevant to human health or healthcare authored by researchers affiliated with Palestinian institutions and published between January 2000 and December 2015. We categorised the condition studied in included articles using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) taxonomy. Data regarding burden of disease (percentage of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)) was obtained from the Palestine profile in the GBD study. We examined the degree of discordance between the observed number of published articles for each disease/condition with the expected number based on the proportion of disease burden of that disease/condition. RESULTS: Our search identified 2469 potentially relevant records, from which 1650 were excluded following the screening of titles and abstracts. Of the remaining 819 full-text articles, we included 511 in our review. Communicable (infectious) diseases (n = 103; 20%) was the condition with the highest number of published studies. However, cancer (n = 15; 3%) and chronic respiratory diseases (n = 15; 3%) were the conditions with the lowest number of published studies. Research output was poorly associated with disease burden, irrespective of whether it was measured in terms of DALYs (rho = -0.116, P = 0.7) or death (rho = 0.217, P = 0.5). Cardiovascular disease, cancer, and maternal and neonatal deaths accounted for more than two-thirds of the total deaths in Palestine (67%), but were infrequently addressed (23%) in published articles. CONCLUSIONS: There is evidence of research waste measured by a mismatch between the health burden of certain diseases/conditions and the number of published research reports on those diseases/conditions in Palestine. A national research priority-setting agenda should be developed to meet the local community's need for quality evidence to implement independent and informed health policies.

Research priority-setting: reproductive health in the occupied Palestinian territory.

BACKGROUND: Occupied Palestinian territory (oPt) is an authority with limited resources. Therefore, research conducted in such a setting should be prioritized and coordinated to follow a national research agenda. This study aims to produce a research agenda for reproductive health in the oPt that can be utilized by reproductive health stakeholders and contribute to the development of policy-based evidence to guide health practice. METHODS: In the current study, we followed research prioritization methods developed by the World Health Organization-Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative. Research questions were obtained from reproductive health experts in the oPt. The questions were then grouped into thematic areas which were prioritized by the reproductive health experts. Scores were calculated and sorted to define the top priority research areas. RESULTS: A total of 232 research questions were prioritized by 30 reproductive health experts. Health system issues were the most addressed in the top 50 research questions. They included questions on the quality of services and health professionals' knowledge and continuous professional training. Adolescents' sexual and reproductive health and gender-based violence were rarely mentioned in the top 50 questions. The number of questions related to safe motherhood was around 50% followed by questions related to health system. Questions related to elderly women and menopause as well as reproductive system cancers were also within the top 50 ranked questions. CONCLUSIONS: Priority research areas in reproductive health were identified for the oPt, which should be utilized by researchers with a focus on the high priority areas. Policy makers and funders should coordinate their efforts to ensure the production of research with value to the Palestinian context, in the most efficient way possible.

Harm perceptions of waterpipe tobacco smoking among university students in five Eastern Mediterranean Region countries: A cross-sectional study.

INTRODUCTION: Waterpipe tobacco smoking (WTS) continues to be very common in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR), partially because of cultural acceptance but also because of misconceptions of its harm. This paper aimed to describe the beliefs towards waterpipe harm of university students who smoked waterpipe in five EMR countries. METHODS: This study was conducted in 2016 across five EMR countries: Egypt, Jordan, Occupied Palestinian Territories, Oman and United Arab Emirates (UAE). Participants were recruited from among university students in each country. Students' characteristics, smoking behavior, flavor preference and knowledge of WTS harm were collected using an internet-based survey. Participants were included if they were ever waterpipe tobacco smokers and between 18 and 29 years of age. Bivariate analyses assessed variations in student-perceived WTS harm across the countries. Linear regression analysis was used to assess WTS perceived harm differences between students in the different countries. RESULTS: A total of 2 544 university students participated from the five countries. Among ever smoking students, 66% reported WTS in the past 30 days, with the highest proportions (40%) from Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPT) and (41%) Jordan. Dual smoking of waterpipe and cigarettes was highest among students from Egypt. Most participants from the five countries had high level of perceived harm related to WTS during pregnancy. Less than 50% of the students believed that WTS could lead to the death of the smoker, can be harmful for non-smokers and have an addictive effect. Female students, those older than 22 years, and those who didn't smoke waterpipe in the last 30 days significantly had a higher level of WTS perceived harm. Participating students believed that cigarettes are more addictive and contain more nicotine compared to waterpipe. CONCLUSIONS: Misperceptions of waterpipe harm are common among university students in the five EMR countries. Immediate public health action is needed, including enforcement of waterpipe tobacco control regulations along with awareness campaigns.

Waterpipe and cigarette tobacco smoking among Palestinian university students: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: During the last two decades, waterpipe tobacco smoking (WTS), also known as hookah, witnessed a global increase in use, especially among youth. Little information is known about the burden of WTS among Palestinian youth. A cross-sectional study was conducted to estimate the prevalence of WTS and cigarette smoking and explore the associated factors among a sample of Palestinian university students. METHODS: 1891 students, from five Palestinian universities in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, completed a self-administered, web-based survey in 2014-2015. The questionnaire, which was based on the Global Adults Tobacco Survey (GATS), had questions on WTS and cigarette smoking patterns and socio-demographic and university-related characteristics. Binary logistic regression analyses were computed to investigate associated factors with WTS and cigarette smoking. RESULTS: 50.9% of the sample was women. The mean age was 20.1 ± 2.0. Overall, 30.0% of participants were current tobacco smokers and 33.4% reported ever smoking tobacco through a waterpipe. The prevalence of current WTS (24.4%) surpassed the prevalence of current cigarette smoking (18.0%), with a significantly higher prevalence among men compared to women. The gender gap for WTS (36.4% vs. 12.9%) was smaller than that for cigarette smoking (32.8% vs. 3.6%). Binary logistic regression models for the total sample (men and women) revealed that men were more likely to be current waterpipe and cigarette tobacco smokers compared to women (AOR = 4.20, 95% CI = 3.22-5.48, and AOR = 10.91, 95% CI = 7.25-16.42, respectively). Geographic area of residence, faculty of study and self-reported academic achievement were also associated with the likelihood of being current waterpipe and cigarette tobacco smokers. CONCLUSION: A high prevalence of WTS was reported among our study sample, and it surpassed the prevalence of cigarette smoking. Interventions to curb the practice of tobacco smoking among Palestinian youth should be tailored differently to WTS and cigarette smoking, be gender-sensitive and specific and target the regional variation in the smoking behavior.

Cancer mortality in the West Bank, Occupied Palestinian Territory.

BACKGROUND: The burden of cancer is difficult to study in the context of the occupied Palestinian territory because of the limited data available. This study aims to evaluate the quality of mortality data and to investigate cancer mortality patterns in the occupied Palestinian territory's West Bank governorates from 1999 to 2009. METHODS: Death certificates collected by the Palestinian Ministry of Health for Palestinians living in the West Bank were used. Direct and indirect age-standardised mortality rates were computed and used to compare different governorates according to total and specific cancer mortality. Furthermore, standardised proportional mortality ratios were calculated to compare mortality by urban, rural and camp locales. RESULTS: The most common cause of death out of all cancer types was lung cancer among males (22.8 %) and breast cancer among females (21.5 %) followed by prostate cancer for males (9.5 %) and by colon cancer for females (11.4 %). Regional variations in cancer-specific causes of death were observed. The central- West Bank governorates had the lowest mortality for most cancer types among men and women. Mortality for lung cancer was highest in the north among men (SMR 109.6; 95%CI 99.5-120.4). For prostate cancer, mortality was highest in the north (SMR 103.6; 95%CI 88.5-120.5) and in the south (SMR 118.6; 95%CI 98.9-141.0). Breast cancer mortality was highest in the south (SMR 119.3; 95%CI 103.9-136.2). Similar mortality rate patterns were found in urban, rural and camp locales. CONCLUSION: The quality of the Palestinian mortality registry has improved over time. Results in the West Bank governorates present different mortality patterns. The differences might be explained by personal, contextual and environmental factors that need future in-depth investigations.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cardiovascular risk factor trends in the Eastern Mediterranean region: evidence from four countries is alarming.

OBJECTIVES: Many Eastern Mediterranean countries are undergoing dramatic socioeconomic, demographic and life style changes and face noncommunicable disease (NCD) epidemics. We evaluated recent trends in major NCD risk factors in occupied Palestinian territories (OPT), Turkey, Syria and Tunisia. METHODS: We searched published and unpublished sources for systolic blood pressure (SBP), diabetes, smoking, body mass index (BMI), and cholesterol trends for both men and women aged 35-84 in each country from 1995 to 2009. RESULTS: Smoking prevalence was stable over time in Tunisia and Syria, but decreasing in Turkey (annual change -0.9%) and OPT (annual change -0.7%). Mean BMI (annual change of 0.1% for Turkey, 0.2% for OPT and Tunisia and 0.3% in Syria) and diabetes (annual change of 0.3% for Turkey, 0.4% for OPT and Tunisia and 0.7% in Syria) prevalence increased in each country. SBP levels increased slightly in Tunisia and Syria but decreased in OPT and Turkey. CONCLUSIONS: Recent risk factor trends are worrying. Good quality data on the extent and determinants of NCDs are essential to respond the changing health needs of populations with burgeoning NCD epidemics.

Preventing type 2 diabetes among Palestinians: comparing five future policy scenarios.

OBJECTIVE: This paper aims to provide estimates of future diabetes prevalence in the West Bank, occupied Palestinian territory (oPt), and to compare five future policy scenarios for diabetes prevention. DESIGN: We created and refined a mathematical Markov model that integrates population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate future diabetes prevalence. Model parameters were derived from the literature. Diabetes incidence was estimated using DISMOD software. We developed the model for the Palestinian population based on data available for the period 2000-2010, and validated the model by comparing predicted diabetes prevalence to subsequent actual observed diabetes prevalence rates. SETTING: West Bank oPt. RESULTS: Palestinian diabetes mellitus prevalence estimated by the model (for adults aged 25 or more) was 9.7% in 2000, increasing to 15.3% by 2010. Prevalence in men increased from 9.1% to 16.9% and in women from 10.2% to 13.6%. Comparisons of the model results with the observed prevalence in the Palestinian Family Health Survey showed a close fit. The model forecasts were 20.8% for 2020 and 23.4% for 2030. A 2.8% reduction in diabetes prevalence could be achieved if obesity trends start to decline by 5% in a 5-year period. If obesity prevalence was reduced by 35% in 10 years, as suggested by the WHO, diabetes prevalence might be decreased by 20%. CONCLUSIONS: The model estimates an increase in the prevalence of diabetes which poses a large challenge to the health system. However, if bold but reasonable action is taken, effective interventions could reduce diabetes prevalence and hence the number of patients with diabetes.